Disappointments with 2019 Ranked Season

Table of Contents

1 Summary TL;DR

I believe that Riot's choice to place unranked accounts into Gold games unfairly biased a large number of games. As a Gold player my statistics show a 54% loss rate when an unranked player is placed in my match.

2 Background

I really enjoy League. My friends and family who don't play do often watch LCS and Worlds. I feel I'm a positive influence on everyone I play with despite the toxic community.

I've been playing League since Season 4, I remember when Braum first came out. I play frequently with my sons and their friends, and have made quite a few friends online through playing matches.

I've received honor level 5 the last two seasons, and strive to be a calming influence and a role model in the games I play. My club "POLIT" is a collection of other players which consistently exhibit good sportsmanship.

I've never had a ban or punishment issued.

Mandatory links:

2.1 Goals

I have no illusions I'm the next upcoming LEC star or even a Diamond. My goal was low Platinum. I was Gold in 2018, and I finished 2019 as Gold 2.

2.2 Tank main

I am a tank main. As I'm in my 40's I'm the oldest League player I've met. I'm not here to play twitch speed champions, I'm here to enable and win team fights and take objectives.

I have large amounts of mastery on my main champions. Unfortunately in the current damage heavy meta I understand I'm playing from behind, so the climb has been very difficult.

Champion Mastery
Jax 657,836
Tahm Kench 560,196
Volibear 502,927
Maokai 443,348
Shen 335,723
Rammus 250,077
Ornn 218,514

Earlier this year I was in the top 500 Maokai players on EUW, and top 1000 on EUW for Tahm Kench according to League of Graphs! Quite the honor!

2.3 Switched to support and some damage second half of season

Given my difficulties climbing with tanks, I started playing more support and I picked up a damage AP support (Swain). I've adapted and worked on improving my skills.

In a support role I can play tanks and some damage and be a better multiplier to my teams' effectiveness. Unfortunately that means we have to have some effectiveness in the team or I have no agency to influence the outcome.

3 Matchmaking concerns

3.1 2018 Failures and poor matchmaking in Flex

Ranked season 2018 was a complete waste of time. I don't care for the attitude of players in Solo Queue and so decided I would play Flex. After about 700 matches in Flex I was very upset with the high variability in the matchmaking. It was horrible. There was rarely an even game, it was always a horrible stomp for one side or the other.

Doing more research, I came across comments that explain Riot has a separate MMR for Flex vs Solo queues. This meant that often in Flex we would get a team of Flex ranked Silvers who were really Solo Queue Platinum's. Clearly that's poor matchmaking, and so I stopped playing Flex.

I did about 700 matches in Solo Queue in 2018 and got Gold.

3.2 Unranked added into Gold games

I'm very disappointed that Riot is placing unranked players, both smurfs and newbies, into Gold level matches in Solo Queue. This is incredibly unfair to all Gold level players, who should be able to expect a fair game against players at their level.

Unfortunately my analysis here shows that it is not an isolated or rare incident. Unranked players plague a large number of matches and punish players with consistent losses.

3.3 Smurfs

The topic of smurfs in Solo Queue is a hotly contested topic on many of the forums I read. I have a simple set of assertions:

  • One player, One ranked account

Riot has already admitted they have a smurfing problem, because they have implemented various methods for Clash to prevent smurfing. This includes requiring accounts with honor level 2 or higher, and SMS validation.

I sincerely hope that Riot implements these same protections to Solo Queue so that we can have more consistent and fair matchmaking for everyone.

3.4 Losers island

I encountered a very frustrating phenomenon during my games.

  • Losses snowball

If I lost several games in a row, I was going to lose the next ten games. Something about the matchmaking seemed to group people with recent losses together.

This was incredibly frustrating, in that several times I made Gold 2 and then after a few legitimate losses, I would have a loss streak that took me back to Gold 4 with 0 LP and have to start my climb all over again. Those games would be some of the worst I experienced, with stomp after stomp and teams that made no sense.

I can't explain this behavior. A few losses should reduce your MMR, but not catastrophically. It shouldn't exclusively group you with others that had loss streaks.

4 Problems gathering data

4.1 Riot does not keep a history of LP gained or lost

One of the major frustrations is that Riot has chosen to withhold useful ranked data from the players and external developers. There is no record in the API of LP gained or lost, a timeline of division gains, etc.

This makes analyzing matches difficult, and prevents you from gaining insight into your LP patterns.

4.2 Riot does not publish MMR values or explain their matchmaking systems

Riot has been frequently criticized on the forums I read for not publishing information regarding the matchmaking algorithms. While I understand they feel that keeping that information private prevents abuse, I counter that a proper algorithm wouldn't need to be hidden.

5 Data points

To gather data to analyze at the end of the ranked season, I signed up for a Riot developer API and downloaded my match history and the history of many other players.

I only downloaded the details for about 1500 of my matches in order to seed my data. After that I downloaded 9 million match listings for over 10,000 players that had been in my ranked matches.

I then tagged them as unranked if they had less than 10 ranked games at the time they were in a match with me. I did not count their future games or pull their final rank due to data rate limits.

From my downloads I have picked up the following statistics for the whole season.

  • Full Season
    Solo Queue Ranked matches in Season 2019
    1310
    Matches with all players ranked in
    870 (66% of matches)
    Matches with unranked present
    440 (33% of matches)
    Total win/loss ratio
    49.23% win rate, 50.76% loss rate
    Win/loss ratio with unranked present
    47.5% win rate, 52.5% loss rate
    Win/loss ratio all ranked
    50.1% win rate, 49.9% loss rate

To put those figures into perspective, a third of my matches had unranked players present. There was a 5% higher loss rate with unranked players on average. On the other hand the 50% win rate with all ranked means I'm close to where I should have been.

About halfway through the season I decided to play some damage supports instead of just tanks. So the second half of the seasons numbers should more accurately reflect my growth in the current meta.

  • Second Half
    Matches in second half of Season 2019
    649
    Matches with all players ranked in
    398 (61.3% of matches)
    Matches with unranked present
    251 (38.7% of matches)
    Total win/loss ratio
    50.07% win rate, 49.9% loss rate
    Win/loss ratio with unranked present
    45.8% win rate, 54.1% loss rate
    Win/loss ratio all ranked
    52.76% win rate, 47.23% loss rate

In the second half of the season, I had even more games with unranked present. The frequency of unranked players increased from a third of the games to nearly 40% of my games.

At the same time the loss rate with unranked players present increased nearly 5%. Just having an unranked player in my game made me 5% more likely to lose a game!

Finally in what I believe shows my personal improvement, my win rate when I only played with ranked players increased to 52%.

My conclusion? I believe I could have made my goal of Platinum if Riot had not put hundreds of unranked players into my games.

5.1 Win/loss trends

Given Riot doesn't publish LP values, I'm graphing my total number of wins below. Starting at 0 wins, each win adds 1 to the count, and each loss subtracts 1. Wins and losses are color coded to show when all the players in my game were ranked, or when they were unranked.

The increase in unranked players in the second half is clearly visible.

Several of the loss streaks that I referred to above are also clearly visible, however I do not believe at this time that the losses directly correlated to the number of unranked players. I still think there is a "Losers Island" effect.

6 Where to go from here?

I'd like to put this into perspective. Assuming a half hour per game, Riot wasted 220 hours of my time this last year in matches biased against me.

That's another 220 hours of dealing with toxic behavior in Solo Queue. 220 hours of trying to be a role model and help my teams get ahead. 220 hours of slowly losing in a position where I couldn't fix it because the game was rigged against me.

I'm very frustrated with this outcome. I'm strongly considering never playing ranked again unless Riot publicly makes some dramatic changes to their matchmaking system.

Date: 2019-12-09 Mon 00:00

Author: Demosthenex

Created: 2019-12-09 Mon 14:02

Validate